占美國GDP七成的民間消費是左右美國經濟復甦情況的關鍵因素
利潤及產能利用率維持低點,企業投資意願仍難快速提升
Gov’t Forecast for TW Quarterly GDP Growth
TW Annual GDP Composition & Growth
Foreign Demand Is Gradually Recovering
Asia’s Econ Recovery Clearly Outpaces the Rest of the Major Market!
Import Shrinking Even More than Export makes Trade Surplus Ironically Stable!
Exchange Rate of NTD to USD (2009.1.5-2009.11.12)
Comparison of Exchange Rates: Major Asian Currencies against USD
Econ Downturn Discourages Fixed Investment
Growth of GFCF & Imported Cap Goods
Domestic Consumption Also Gradually Recovers
Recovery Is Evident in the Sales of Retail Trade & Restaurant
Taiwan’s CPI & PPI Annual Increase %
Interest Rate of Interbank Overnight2008.1.2-2009.11.12
Perspectives of Interest Rate: Money Supply Annual Increase %
Factors Weakening Consumption: Employee Avg Salary & Growth
Perspectives of Salary Growth:Ratio of Job Offers to Seekers
Recovering Exports Also Led to the Recovery of Demands for Domestic & Imported Producer’s Goods
Trend of Unemployment Rate
我國勞動力(現逾1千萬)的教育程度已由過去的中小學轉為大專以上(逾四成)與高職(約1/4)為主的結構
近年【專科】失業率明顯低於【大學+】與【高職】而金融海嘯造成【國中】失業率急升至7%以上!
目前【高職】【大學+】與【國中】失業人口(分別為18.6萬、17.7萬、10.8萬)已佔總失業的七成!
近十年【大學+】非勞動人口速增,現已逾160萬,僅次於【小學】的近200萬,為成長最快的隱藏性失業族群!
目前25~49歲佔七成的勞動力,而15~24歲的佔比顯著下降,與繼續升學有關
我國【<30歲】向為高失業族群,隨年紀增長,生涯規劃與技能經驗益發穩健,失業率便逐漸下降
近年來勞動力佔比不到一成的【20~24歲】竟佔失業人口的兩成左右,顯示應屆畢業生謀職甚為不易,而金融海嘯後其比例下降,係轉為非勞動人口/隱藏性失業!
扣除最高與最幼勞動年齡層,非勞動力傾向較高的年齡層為55~64歲,及【20~24歲】,而金融海嘯並未明顯改變其他中高齡族群的非勞動力傾向!